China’s strategic reserve management has been the primary factor capping oil price volatility since the conflict in the Gulf intensified. By importing just 7.12 million barrels per day in June—a 41.3% drop from the previous year—Beijing effectively absorbed the shock of more than 10 million barrels per day in disrupted flows through Hormuz. However, this period of restraint is reaching its functional limit. With an estimated 41 million barrels drawn from domestic stockpiles in June alone, the capacity to rely on existing inventory is narrowing.

Market analysts now anticipate a sharp reversal in buying activity. Goldman Sachs suggests that lower official selling prices from Gulf producers could trigger a surge in Chinese demand as early as July or August. Should Beijing re-enter the market, it will coincide with a period of critically low global inventories. Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects warns that the world has already exhausted roughly 700 million barrels of stocks since the crisis began, leaving virtually no margin for error. With the U.S. blockade on Iranian exports remaining in place and tanker traffic through Hormuz facing fresh, volatile interruptions, the market is bracing for a sustained period of upward price pressure as the era of Chinese-driven demand suppression draws to a close.