Analysts at ING warn that the current hostilities pose a more acute threat to gas markets than to oil. Based on historical data following the June ceasefire between the United States and Iran, LNG exports typically recover at a slower pace than crude oil. Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlighted that any eventual resolution to the current flare-up will likely result in a sluggish ramp-up of gas flows, leaving Europe particularly vulnerable as seasonal demand begins to climb.

The market volatility is already reflected in pricing. Asian LNG benchmarks have jumped 25% over the last four weeks, reaching March highs. On July 16, spot prices hit $20.2 per million British thermal units, a 10% increase in a single week. This surge persists despite Qatar’s efforts to boost production in anticipation of regional stability, a strategy that now appears premature given the renewed military activity. Current LSEG data confirms that while a handful of oil product carriers have navigated the Strait since Friday, no LNG vessels have attempted the passage.