The revised forecast marks a sharp reversal from July, when the firm cautioned of an impending oil glut and projected a normalization of shipping lanes. That outlook collapsed as the security situation deteriorated, characterized by a near-total cessation of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Vessel transponders are now routinely disabled as shipping companies attempt to navigate the region in silence, yet even these measures have failed to maintain consistent flow volumes.

Adding to the supply volatility, Houthi forces in Yemen have declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea. This move threatens the kingdom’s primary bypass route—the East-West pipeline feeding the port of Yanbu—which was intended to circumvent the Hormuz bottleneck. With Persian Gulf flows now tracking below 45% of pre-war levels, the market is bracing for a sustained supply shock that outweighs previous concerns over weak global demand.