Base metals experienced a turbulent first half of the year, with the LMEX index swinging from record highs in June to three-month lows shortly after. Standard Chartered analysts point to a shifting landscape where macro dynamics—specifically Federal Reserve policy and Chinese economic performance—now dictate price action more than raw supply fundamentals.

Copper remains caught in a narrow $13,000 to $14,000 per tonne range. Despite China’s second-quarter growth missing targets, analysts identify persistent demand signals, including shrinking domestic inventories and robust import premiums. The International Energy Agency reinforces this supply-side fragility, citing Middle East geopolitical friction and power-intensive AI data centers as long-term catalysts that could tighten the market further.

Aluminum paints a different picture. Prices spiked to four-year highs in June before erasing those gains entirely. Standard Chartered suggests the market overreacted to the downside, as the return of idled production capacity will likely be slower than anticipated. Meanwhile, the Platinum Group Metals complex continues to struggle. Palladium has faced particularly sharp downgrades, with rising exchange inventories and weakening auto-sector expectations driving investors toward bearish positions. Even as rhodium shows signs of potential market balance, the broader precious metals sector remains tethered to a cycle of high real yields and cooling industrial demand.