The sustained exchange of fire between U.S. and Iranian assets has curbed previous expectations of a de-escalation, keeping global energy markets on edge. While Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate have retreated from recent peaks, both benchmarks remain on track for monthly gains of nearly 20%. Price volatility continues to hinge on the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains significantly below historical levels following the initial strikes on February 28.

Despite the upward pressure on prices, some relief has emerged from shifts in regional security alliances. Saudi Arabia announced it is forming a defense coalition focused on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden, securing support from 14 nations including Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan. This move to secure maritime corridors provides a potential counterbalance to the ongoing disruptions, even as the market remains sensitive to any fluctuations in tanker traffic volume.