Spain has spent the last two years deepening its reliance on the United States, which now provides roughly 250,000 barrels per day of crude oil—a significant share of the 1.2 million barrels consumed daily. Repsol, the country’s largest refiner, serves as the primary gateway for these imports, utilizing light, sweet WTI Midland to balance its complex processing configurations. While crude could theoretically be sourced from Brazil or West Africa, such a shift would inevitably drive up operational costs and complicate refinery logistics.

The strategic danger is more acute in the natural gas sector. US LNG accounted for roughly 30% of Spain’s gas imports in 2025, acting as a flexible buffer during market volatility. However, this dependence is set to collide with a major supply gap: the January 1, 2027, EU-wide ban on Russian LNG. With Naturgy facing €10.95 billion in take-or-pay commitments for Russian gas that will soon become unusable, Madrid is scrambling to secure alternatives. While Spain is negotiating to expand Medgaz pipeline capacity with Algeria, current infrastructure constraints make a full replacement of US volumes impossible.

Spain’s regasification capacity provides a physical defense against a total cutoff, but terminals cannot manufacture supply. If Washington transforms political friction into formal export restrictions, or if US producers divert flexible volumes to higher-paying Asian markets, Spain will be forced to compete in a tight global arena. As 2027 approaches, Madrid risks entering the year with fewer supply options, inflated replacement costs, and an American administration increasingly comfortable using energy access as a primary instrument of geopolitical leverage.