The frequency of these crimes has surged by 24% in recent months, though the total monetary value of stolen fuel has jumped by 48% when compared to pre-war levels, driven largely by crude oil inflation. RAC reports that gasoline currently sits at $2.15 per liter, while diesel prices are nearing record 2022 highs at $2.41. In response to the wave of theft, Forecourt Eye plans to deploy facial recognition technology this autumn to help retailers identify repeat offenders.

This localized crime wave reflects a broader energy crisis. Supply lines from the Persian Gulf remain constrained, while Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have removed nearly 800,000 barrels of diesel from the global market daily. Although major refiners like Exxon, Chevron, and Shell have pushed utilization rates above 95%, supply remains critically tight. Analysts warn that because diesel powers essential sectors like agriculture and logistics, the current price pressure is likely to persist regardless of short-term shifts in crude oil markets.