The analysis, commissioned from Oxford Economics, maps three potential trajectories for bilateral commerce. A successful renegotiation stands to boost the labor market by 137,000 American and 98,000 Canadian positions by 2027. Conversely, failure to sustain the pact could trigger a sharp decline, resulting in 214,000 fewer jobs in the United States and 102,000 in Canada.

Beth Burke, CEO of the CABC, emphasized that the current trade framework remains a critical engine for innovation and shared competitiveness. The research suggests that tariffs provide no relief for the U.S. trade deficit and fail to stimulate domestic manufacturing growth, instead creating friction across deeply intertwined supply chains. With businesses demanding long-term stability, the council is urging policymakers to prioritize predictability over protectionist measures as negotiations proceed.