The massive delivery marks the largest single-day surge in on-warrant stock since April, forcing a retreat in prices after the spread hit $545 on Monday—the widest gap since 2021. Traders had spent days aggressively buying cash and selling forward to navigate a market depleted of physical metal. While the immediate pressure has subsided, the broader supply outlook remains constrained by production cuts in Chile and ongoing smelter outages in Indonesia and the Congo.

Market participants are now weighing these deliveries against the looming uncertainty of U.S. trade policy. A proposed 15% tariff on refined copper remains in limbo, yet importers continue to ship record volumes to the United States. With Shanghai inventories climbing and Chinese buyers cooling their interest at current price levels, Wednesday’s contract expiry will serve as the definitive test of whether the recent volatility was driven by temporary short-covering or a genuine structural deficit in the global copper complex.