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Natixis hikes gold target to $5,000 amid U.S. debt and bond volatility

Gold prices are surging toward a $5,000-an-ounce milestone as market anxiety over U.S. fiscal stability intensifies. Bernard Dahdah, a precious metals analyst at Natixis, upgraded his year-end forecast on Tuesday, citing ballooning sovereign debt and erratic bond market behavior as primary drivers for the metal's historic monthly performance.

Natixis hikes gold target to $5,000 amid U.S. debt and bond volatility

The rally, which has pushed gold to a 15% monthly gain—the best since September 1999—follows a shift in interest rate expectations. Markets have moved from pricing in multiple hikes to anticipating a single cut in December. This momentum accelerated after the U.S. Treasury announced it would double bond buybacks to $4 billion to contain 30-year yields, which recently hit two-decade highs of 5.3%.

Dahdah attributes this renewed demand to deep-seated fears regarding currency debasement. He points to a "perfect storm" of fiscal pressures: court-ordered tariff reversals cutting off revenue, rising Pentagon spending, and massive capital expenditure by tech giants like Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon. These companies have committed nearly $250 billion to power procurement, contributing to a broader surge in private market debt. With U.S. debt now exceeding $40 trillion, Natixis expects gold to maintain its upward trajectory, averaging $5,000 an ounce through 2027, while also projecting silver prices to reach an average of $78 next year.

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