Between January and July, exports of the ESPO grade from the Russian port of Kozmino climbed 6% compared to the previous year. While China remains the primary destination, its share of these shipments dipped from 88% to 83%. Conversely, India’s share of the volume rose to 16%, up from 12% during the same period in 2026.

Industry experts attribute this realignment to tactical necessity rather than a permanent market shift. Dmitry Prokofiev of NEFT Research notes that Indian refiners typically favor the Urals blend due to lower costs and shorter transit times. ESPO serves as a strategic contingency, utilized specifically when Chinese demand softens or when regional supply chains face acute disruption. Although August saw a slight cooling in India’s total Russian oil imports—partly due to infrastructure strikes and renewed competition for barrels—the surge in ESPO reflects the volatile nature of current global energy trade routes.