The current standoff at BP’s Whiting, Indiana, refinery—stretching into its sixth month—mirrors the aggressive tactics employed by Exxon in 2021. During that record-setting 10-month lockout in Beaumont, Texas, Exxon successfully pressured 650 workers into accepting management proposals. Today, BP and Marathon are mirroring that strategy, utilizing supervisors and third-party contractors to maintain operations while labor negotiations remain deadlocked.

At the heart of the Whiting dispute is BP’s proposal to shift specific maintenance tasks to specialized third-party contractors and secure waivers regarding the use of AI tools and digital time-tracking. While BP has offered a 13% raise over four years, union representatives argue the initial pay increase falls short of national standards. Eric Schultz, president of United Steelworkers Local 7-1, points to the presence of Jordan Marcks—a former Exxon manager who oversaw the 2021 Beaumont lockout—as evidence that BP is following a pre-written, confrontational playbook.

This shift in tactics occurs against a backdrop of record-breaking financial performance. Amid supply disruptions in the Middle East and surging fuel prices, BP recently reported underlying earnings of $5.7 billion, more than doubling its year-ago profit. CEO Meg O’Neill is under pressure to streamline operations and boost shareholder value, a mandate that appears to include minimizing labor costs and gaining greater operational flexibility. The outcome at Whiting may set a precedent, signaling to the industry that high-stakes labor brinkmanship is a viable path to securing long-term contract concessions.