Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, warned that the recent re-escalation marks a significant shift in supply risk. Brent Crude has already climbed past $97, nearing the $100 threshold for the first time since July, while WTI Crude trades above $92. The market reaction follows a weekend of direct confrontations where the U.S. engaged Iranian vessels in response to ballistic missile attacks on its warships.

Iran has signaled a departure from restrained maneuvers, with parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf promising faster and more painful responses to future provocations. The situation is further complicated by Tehran’s plan to establish an exclusion zone stretching from the U.S. naval blockade toward the Strait of Hormuz. Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stated that any vessels entering this zone would face immediate sanctions. Beyond crude, Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that natural gas and refined products are particularly vulnerable, noting that supply shocks in these sectors may prove even more substantial than those affecting the crude market.