Kim identifies two primary drivers behind the seven-month consolidation: the ongoing transition in Federal Reserve leadership and the disruption of global gold reserve recycling linked to the conflict in Iran. Despite these headwinds, the fundamental case for gold remains intact. He views the $4,000 level as a solid support point where sovereign and institutional sponsorship remains active. For investors looking to enter the market, Kim suggests scaling into long positions during volatility leading up to the upcoming FOMC decision.

Looking further ahead, Goldman Sachs Research forecasts prices reaching $4,900 per ounce by late 2026. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven highlight that central banks are expected to purchase an average of 50 tonnes of gold per month, a significant increase from pre-2022 levels. While private portfolio allocation remains historically low, concerns regarding fiscal sustainability in both the West and Japan may trigger a shift in investor behavior. However, the increased reliance on derivatives for hedging is expected to introduce greater two-sided volatility, as options dealers adjust their exposure in response to rapid price swings.