Very large crude carriers are now averaging $29.5 million per voyage on routes to Asia, adding roughly $15 to the cost of every barrel before factoring in war-risk premiums. Analysts at Kpler anticipate earnings will remain above $100,000 a day through early next year—more than double historical averages—while Morgan Stanley predicts two-year leasing rates could jump an additional 30%. Manu Sehgal of HPCL-Mittal Energy confirmed that while global oil supply remains sufficient, the primary bottleneck is the maritime transit itself.

Despite the hostility, crude continues to move through the Hormuz chokepoint, supported by ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Estimates on daily throughput vary, with Vitol citing 10 million barrels and Goldman Sachs suggesting closer to 15 million. The Baltic Exchange’s specific Gulf of Oman-to-East Asia benchmark has tracked this volatility, surging 85% since its inception to reach $386,000 a day. These mounting freight costs threaten to deepen global inflationary pressures, eventually trickling down from energy prices to the cost of consumer goods.