The report updates previous findings by comparing renewable diesel, battery electric vehicles, and compressed natural gas trucks fueled by renewable natural gas (RNG). While renewable diesel offers lower initial costs by utilizing existing engine technology, its price remains tethered to volatile fossil fuel markets. In contrast, RNG pricing tracks with compressed natural gas, which has largely avoided the recent inflationary pressures triggered by geopolitical instability.

In California, where diesel costs have climbed to $8.15 per gallon, RNG currently offers a savings of at least $3.50 per gallon. This price spread allows fleet operators to recoup the roughly $75,000 capital investment required for a new CNG tractor-trailer in as little as 1.3 years. Meanwhile, battery electric vehicles remain constrained by high purchase costs—often two to three times that of diesel counterparts—and sluggish adoption rates. Out of the 5.2 million heavy-duty trucks operating in the United States at the end of 2025, fewer than 3,000 were electric.

Michael Lerner, Director of Research at Energy Vision, notes that the economic landscape for trucking has fundamentally transformed. By decoupling from the volatility of fossil diesel, fleet owners can mitigate both operational expenses and the public health burdens associated with traditional emissions. The data suggests that RNG currently provides the most scalable path forward for the heavy-duty sector.