At least three European refiners face shipment delays extending into November, while others await notices regarding their September allocations. Market intelligence suggests that every Saudi cargo slated for the final ten days of September currently faces risk. Although Aramco previously committed to fulfilling full contractual volumes for September, no crude has departed the Red Sea port of Yanbu since the day after the attack, according to vessel tracking data.

Poland’s Orlen, which relies on Saudi crude for approximately 40% of its refinery throughput, has already turned to spot market alternatives. The company is actively sourcing North Sea grades, including Johan Sverdrup and Grane, alongside U.S. WTI Midland and CPC Blend from Kazakhstan to cover the shortfall. Despite the logistical strain, Orlen maintains that its refineries in Poland, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic continue to receive sufficient feedstock. The East-West pipeline remains a critical artery for Saudi exports, and its prolonged outage underscores the fragility of European supply chains that depend on the Mediterranean link via the SUMED pipeline.