The security faction is demanding a formal transfer of their financial and administrative oversight from the Ministry of Defense to the National Oil Corporation. To force negotiations, the guards have threatened partial production cuts at the Wafa, Al-Khamsa, and El Feel fields, with a full-scale shutdown looming if their requirements for a transition timetable remain unaddressed.

This disruption arrives at a precarious moment for the state-run firm, which recently boosted national output to 1.4 million barrels per day. With ambitious targets to reach 1.6 million barrels by 2026, the corporation relies on roughly $40 billion in projected foreign investment. Recent exploration agreements with firms including Repsol, Eni, and QatarEnergy were designed to stabilize this growth, yet the sector remains tethered to the volatility of local armed groups. Control of the valve, rather than the strength of international contracts, continues to define the limits of Libya’s energy strategy.