The Federal Reserve pushed the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% following its latest policy meeting. Updated economic projections, or the committee’s dot plot, point toward a year-end rate of 4.1%, signaling at least one additional increase before the calendar turns. Although gold initially held support above $4,300 an ounce, the metal struggled to maintain that floor as Warsh’s press conference emphasized price stability over market sentiment.

Spot gold last traded at $4,256.50 an ounce, a decline of nearly 1% for the session. Warsh attributed rising 10-year Treasury yields—which recently climbed above 5%—to resilient economic growth and intense capital competition driven by heavy borrowing from technology hyperscalers. Geopolitical instability, he noted, continues to exert upward pressure on commodity costs and consumer prices.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, observed that the Fed remains boxed in by persistent inflation and robust consumer spending. While the central bank is clearly prioritizing rate hikes to cool the economy, Zaccarelli noted that Warsh left the door open regarding the cadence of future moves. The Chairman avoided committing to consecutive hikes, suggesting the committee may pause between meetings to assess the impact of their tightening cycle.