The total commercial stockpile reached 428.8 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 6, a figure approximately 3% below the seasonal five-year average. This massive build caught the market off guard; a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts had initially projected a decline of 400,000 barrels. Meanwhile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve remained steady at 415.2 million barrels, while inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub rose by 1.1 million barrels.

The inventory spike follows a significant recovery in domestic operations. The EIA estimates U.S. crude production climbed to 13.7 million barrels a day, an increase of nearly 500,000 barrels daily as facilities came back online following "freeze-offs" caused by winter storm Fern. This supply surge was bolstered by a 604,000 barrel-per-day increase in imports, even as export volumes slipped to 3.7 million barrels a day.

Refining and Downstream Trends

Refinery activity cooled slightly, with utilization rates dropping to 89.4% from the previous week’s 90.5%. Despite the slower processing pace, gasoline inventories grew by 1.2 million barrels to 259.1 million barrels—roughly 4% above the five-year average—supported by a modest uptick in consumer demand. Conversely, distillate fuel stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels, a sharper contraction than the 2.1 million barrels anticipated by the market.