ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey warn that supply-side risks remain high despite the recent cooling of prices from last week’s $108 peak. The market remains caught between diplomatic optimism surrounding the UN General Assembly and aggressive posturing from Washington. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent escalated the standoff Tuesday by threatening to bar Iranian airlines from the dollar system if they continue to receive refueling or ticketing services at international airports.

Beyond Middle Eastern friction, physical infrastructure failures are tightening the market. An armed group in Libya forced a shutdown of a valve on the pipeline connecting the Sharara oilfield to the Zawiya terminal on Monday. This sabotage slashed output at the nation's largest field from 340,000 barrels per day to approximately 127,000, underscoring the fragility of global supply chains outside of the Persian Gulf.