The supertanker market has reached a breaking point. Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), which carry 2 million barrels per voyage, are increasingly tied up in lengthy journeys and logistical bottlenecks. In the Strait of Hormuz, shuttle runs to the Gulf of Oman have forced ships into 10-day waiting queues for ship-to-ship transfers, adding as much as $20 per barrel in premiums. With VLCC earnings on Middle East-to-Asia routes exceeding $1.2 million per day, buyers at the end of these supply chains are finding the cost of distance difficult to absorb.

Japan is currently at the center of this strain. Since the March closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Tokyo has shifted its dependence toward US Gulf Coast crude, which now accounts for 35% of its imports. These voyages around the Cape of Good Hope span 50 days, compared to the 60-65 days required for redirected Saudi shipments. Compounding this, the Japanese government must now replenish its strategic reserves, which fell to roughly 182 million barrels by late July. Jogmec recently secured a 2-million-barrel Murban shipment at a $20-per-barrel premium to cover its stockpiling obligations.

Simultaneously, the US faces its own supply constraints. With the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropping to 285 million barrels—near the 252.4 million barrel floor—American export capacity has dwindled from 5.6 million barrels per day in March to 3.7 million in August. As Japan competes with South Korea for these limited American volumes, the convergence of longer routes, high insurance premiums, and shrinking reserve buffers threatens to make Tokyo’s oil bill the most expensive in the world.