The extension follows a months-long campaign of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian refineries, which have significantly hampered production levels since the spring. By removing approximately 10% of global seaborne diesel supply from the market, Russia’s export policy has exacerbated a tightening global landscape for middle distillates. This supply crunch coincides with broader instability in the Middle East, where regional refinery outages have further constrained international fuel flows.

Brian Mandell, Executive Vice President of Marketing and Commercial at Phillips 66, recently noted that major refinery capacity across Asia, the Middle East, and Russia remains offline. With nearly 8.4 million barrels per day of global capacity impacted, recovery timelines remain uncertain due to difficulties in sourcing spare parts and repairing complex infrastructure. The resulting scarcity has pushed retail diesel prices to record levels, including in the United States, where costs reached $6.41 per gallon by the end of September.