While gold prices have retreated from August highs near $4,700 to hold support above $4,100, the underlying market structure remains intact. Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at FOREX.com, identifies the current environment as a tug-of-war between aggressive monetary tightening and persistent inflation. Although surging yields have increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, the metal has avoided a sharp sell-off, suggesting underlying strength that could catalyze a rally toward the $5,000 mark by year-end.

Central bank activity remains a critical variable for the coming months. As global institutions look to diversify away from U.S. Treasuries, sustained buying is expected to provide a buffer against dollar strength. Technical indicators reinforce this outlook; the metal is currently trading within a descending triangle pattern—a formation often signaling bullish continuation. A decisive break above the $4,400 resistance level would likely trigger institutional buying, pushing prices back toward the $4,700 peak and eventually testing higher psychological thresholds.