Economists are recalibrating their models to account for a "structurally impaired" waterway. HSBC analysts suggest that liquid flows will remain far below the pre-war threshold of 20 million barrels per day, while DBS Bank warns that a resolution to the conflict is unlikely within the next two quarters. Despite these warnings, Gulf producers have bypassed some constraints by utilizing "dark" exports, with Goldman Sachs reporting that total regional shipments reached 23.3 million barrels per day last week—a volume that mirrors 2025 averages.

China’s role in the market remains a volatile variable. While some firms anticipate a surge in imports to replenish inventories, others have slashed fourth-quarter forecasts by 400,000 barrels per day. High freight costs and the diminishing availability of discounted Iranian and Venezuelan crude have dampened demand. With OPEC+ members expected to maintain current production targets during their upcoming meeting, market participants look toward 2027 for any return to a supply surplus. Until then, the EIU expects global inventories to continue draining as nations tap into emergency reserves to offset the regional supply gap.