Goldman Sachs analysts recently echoed these concerns, cautioning that a ban might force domestic refiners to scale back processing rates, further tightening supply. The discussion gained traction last month as retail diesel prices reached a historic $6.50 per gallon. Meanwhile, regular gasoline sits at an average of $4.43 per gallon, a significant climb from the $3.15 seen at this time in 2025.

Global fuel markets remain fragile due to persistent refinery constraints. In the Middle East, production remains hampered by strikes on infrastructure and reduced throughput through the Strait of Hormuz. Similarly, Russian refining capacity has been severely limited by Ukrainian drone strikes, prompting Moscow to extend its own diesel export ban through October 31. Even with U.S. refineries operating at peak utilization, global supply gaps remain difficult to bridge.