Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, stated at the Singapore International Energy Week that no credible pathway exists for markets to revert to their pre-war state next year. He emphasized that trust has become the scarcest commodity in the sector, as the world grapples with heightened security challenges. With oil prices flirting with $120 a barrel, the financial burden on trade deficits in developing nations is becoming unsustainable.

The agency expects the current crunch in diesel and gasoil markets to persist well into the middle of next year. This outlook aligns with projections from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates that deferred refinery maintenance will keep fuel supplies tight through the second quarter of 2027. Birol noted that this enduring pressure is already accelerating a global shift toward nuclear power and the broader electrification of energy systems.