The figure, circulated by the Fars News Agency, suggests an optimistic outlook for the Islamic Republic’s next fiscal cycle. However, analysts note that such a baseline remains highly unlikely given Iran's tradition of conservative fiscal forecasting. The strategy appears increasingly detached from the reality of the current maritime restrictions enforced in the Gulf of Oman.

Since the U.S. Navy reinstated its blockade in mid-July, the impact on Iranian trade has been severe. Kpler data indicates that Iran’s floating storage, which stood at 150 million barrels before April, has been completely drained outside the blockade zone. Approximately 43 million barrels remain locked within the Gulf, cut off from international markets. While Iranian officials publicly maintain a stance of defiance, vessel-tracking services confirm a sharp decline in exports since August, leaving the country struggling to find buyers for its trapped inventory.