The upward revision from ANZ relies on the assumption that current structural constraints will endure through December without requiring additional geopolitical shocks. Strategists warned that the market lacks the capacity to absorb further disruptions, as the safeguards that stabilized prices earlier in the year have effectively eroded.

Other major players are adjusting their outlooks to account for the heightened risk environment. UBS recently lifted its 2026 year-end forecast for Brent to $110 per barrel, driven by ongoing uncertainty surrounding regional production and global demand. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs maintains a more conservative estimate of $90 for the end of this year, though lead oil researcher Daan Struyven noted that risks are heavily skewed to the upside. Goldman currently calculates a $27 risk premium per barrel, which is unlikely to dissipate until a sustainable diplomatic resolution emerges. As market participants brace for potential escalations, oil prices are currently tracking toward their fourth consecutive monthly gain.