Netanyahu remains the most likely candidate to receive President Herzog’s initial mandate to form a government, bolstered by Likud’s 27 seats. Despite the shortfall, his camp is actively delegitimizing the electoral process, alleging foreign interference to obstruct a potential coalition between Gadi Eisenkot and the Arab parties. This strategy aims to force a unity government or trigger a repeat election, both of which serve to keep Netanyahu at the helm.

The path to a majority is fraught with friction. Eisenkot requires the support of the Arab slates and Avigdor Liberman’s seven seats to reach the 61-seat threshold. However, Liberman has historically rejected partnerships outside of "Zionist" parties, complicating any anti-Netanyahu alliance. Meanwhile, Likud has weaponized a Shin Bet inquiry into alleged Qatari funding of Arab voter turnout, framing the election results as a threat to national identity. While officials suggest these claims are exaggerated, the narrative provides a convenient pretext for hardliners like Ben-Gvir to demand the annulment of results and the arrest of opposition leaders.