Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance explicitly linked the Republican election performance to the economic fallout of the conflict, with Trump citing gasoline prices as a primary driver for the defeat. Their comments, paired with Trump’s recent assurance to the Financial Times that Washington has no immediate plans for military strikes against Iran, have fundamentally altered market expectations. Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial noted that the combination of rising Middle East exports and this newfound political pressure is forcing a repricing of risk across the energy sector.

The market sell-off persisted despite data showing tightening domestic supplies. U.S. crude inventories fell by 900,000 barrels to 409.8 million for the week ending October 30, significantly below the five-year average. Simultaneously, the Energy Department moved to loan 300,000 barrels from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve to combat record diesel prices, contributing to a 7% drop in heating oil futures. While the EIA reported a 3.6 million barrel decline in distillate stocks, traders remain fixated on the geopolitical outlook rather than these supply constraints. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei continues to dismiss the electoral shift, asserting that U.S. hostility remains constant regardless of the party in power, even as the Houthis reportedly targeted Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport.