West Texas Intermediate for December delivery gained 2.7% to $90.52 a barrel. The previous session’s steep decline followed Democratic gains in the U.S. midterm elections, which traders viewed as potentially increasing pressure on President Trump to pursue diplomacy over the Iran conflict.

“There’s a higher likelihood of a deal now in the coming weeks than there was prior to this election,” said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS. Parmar said some investors believe Trump could escalate to “finish the job,” while others expect him to seek a quick end to the conflict after acknowledging that the war contributed to Republican losses. With Iran unable to export oil under the U.S. blockade, he added, Tehran may want a deal.

Near-term Brent futures spreads have narrowed to less than $2.50 a barrel, from more than $5 in mid-October, according to MUFG. The shift points to reduced concern about immediate shortages. Rystad Energy said the election result could raise the political cost of further military escalation and increase pressure for an agreement that would restore shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. But the incoming Congress does not take office until Jan. 3, leaving room for renewed military action before then. StoneX economist Mike Castle said uncertainty would persist over how the next two months unfold.

J.P. Morgan said the market is returning to surplus as Middle Eastern exports recover and demand weakens. Supply exceeded demand by 1.1 million barrels a day in September and by 1.4 million in October, the bank estimated. Exports from the region rose to about 20.7 million barrels a day in October from 9.8 million in March, while global demand has fallen by 3.3 million barrels a day since the conflict began. Security threats and higher shipping costs still complicate Strait of Hormuz traffic. U.S. crude inventories fell by 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million last week, while distillate stocks dropped by 3.6 million to 99.3 million, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday.