“Not only are we not close to a resolution, we are even worse than we were before the June MOU,” FGE NexantECA chairman emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki told Bloomberg TV on Friday.

The consultancy said a Democratic House and Senate after the midterm elections would leave President Trump a two-month window to strike Iran, most likely from mid-November to mid-December. Its analysts said Trump’s defeat could embolden Tehran to seek major concessions in any talks—demands they believe the United States could not accept.

FGE’s base case is a limited strike before January 3, when the new U.S. Congress convenes. The action could last up to four weeks, the firm said, and would be intended to weaken Iran and increase pressure for a deal, not end the conflict. FGE expects the blockade and sanctions to remain in place during and after a strike, which it expects to be over by the end of the year.

The consultancy expects talks to resume in early 2027, with Strait of Hormuz flows gradually recovering from March 2027. Iran’s oil exports are near zero, Fesharaki told Bloomberg. “By the end of November, they will be starving because there will be no money coming in,” he said.