That would be a 57% increase on the capacity added over the previous six years. For the first time, emerging and developing economies outside China are expected to add as much renewable capacity as advanced economies over the period, according to the IEA’s Renewables 2026 report, which covers forecasts through 2031.

The agency raised its outlook for those economies by almost 20% compared with its report a year ago. From 2020 to 2025, they expanded renewable capacity at half the rate of advanced economies. The IEA attributed the revised forecast to energy security concerns, supportive policies and the increasing competitiveness of wind and solar photovoltaic power.

Global onshore wind capacity is projected to grow by more than 70%, reaching 2,040 GW by 2031. China’s share of global renewable capacity growth is expected to fall from more than 60% in 2025 to 53% by 2031. India, Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East are projected to contribute substantially more, supported by government policies and renewable market development.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said environmental concerns had previously been the main policy driver of renewable growth, alongside falling costs that made the technologies competitive in many markets. Now, he said, energy security is the leading force as countries seek to reduce their reliance on imported fuels.