The last of Norway’s very large discoveries, Wisting in the Barents Sea, was made more than a decade ago. Exploration since then has largely targeted smaller deposits near existing infrastructure, which can be developed faster and at lower cost. Rystad says this approach can sustain output in the near term but will not stop the longer-term decline.

If exploration over the next decade matches the previous decade, the 2040 shortfall would reach 2.2 million boepd. Halving development times under that assumption would trim the gap only to 2.1 million boepd. Even doubling exploration volumes and halving development timelines would leave a 1.4 million boepd shortfall. Rystad’s base case projects a 1.9 million boepd gap. The scenarios point to a need for more wildcat drilling aimed at larger prospects beyond existing infrastructure; infrastructure-led exploration and tiebacks are expected to remain useful but insufficient to reverse the decline.

Norway has 31.7 billion boe in remaining offshore resources and a 60% exploration success rate, above the global average of 55.5%. But the size of discoveries has fallen. Every offshore discovery exceeding 1 billion boe was made between 1969 and 2010. Since 2016, exploration has yielded about 3.2 billion boe, an average of 320 million boe a year. At that pace, finding the estimated 11 billion boe still undiscovered would take more than 30 years. Successful wells add around 7 million boe on average, compared with 18.4 million boe globally. Rystad says finding costs are close to the global average and Norway’s petroleum tax system covers much of exploration spending, making discovery size the central concern.

The average time from discovery to first production is 6.7 years, so exploration in the next two to three years will largely shape what can come online before 2035. Recent tieback discoveries are expected to contribute around 700,000 boepd at peak—roughly a third of the base-case 2040 gap—and tend to have shorter production plateaus. Rystad Partner and Head of Stavanger Tore Gulbrandsoy said Norway must pursue higher-impact prospects capable of supporting standalone developments, with government support through access to new acreage and conditions that encourage riskier investment.

There are signs of a possible shift. Three of the largest operators on the Norwegian Continental Shelf have agreed to drill around five high-impact wells a year for five years. The government has offered 70 new blocks in this year’s Awards in Predefined Areas licensing round, with awards expected early next year. A new petroleum white paper is due in 2027.

The Arctic policy backdrop has also changed. The European Union’s updated policy, published on 20 October, retains its position that Arctic oil and gas should remain in the ground but drops its 2021 call for a multilateral legal ban on new development and does not target existing production. Norway says the EU position does not override its sovereign rights under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Much of the country’s undiscovered resource potential lies in the Barents Sea, where limited infrastructure would make new projects costly and require long-term commitment.