Rising bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar have added pressure after gold surrendered all of the previous week’s gains. Carsten Fritsch, a commodity analyst, said elevated inflation and comments by Fed officials backing a possible 50-basis-point increase next month had reinforced the market’s hawkish outlook. Gold had fallen almost 7%, or about $290, since Tuesday, he said, warning that exchange-traded fund investors could begin selling if prices remain weak.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said losing $4,000 had damaged gold’s short-term technical picture, but cautioned against reading that weakness as a change in longer-term fundamentals. Central-bank buying and resilient ETF demand could limit the correction, he said, though they may not prevent further declines if yields and the dollar keep rising.

Simon-Peter Massabni of XS.com said the dollar’s rise to its highest level since April 2025 and elevated Treasury yields were obstacles to a recovery. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved back above 5%, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no yield. Middle East tensions could support safe-haven demand, but any rise in oil prices could add to inflation and reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, he said.

Neil Welsh, head of metals at Britannia Global Markets, identified $3,800 as a potential downside level, corresponding to the 50% retracement of the broader two-year rally. He said lower prices could appeal to long-term buyers, while stressing that the key issue for institutional investors was rising real yields and expectations for Fed policy. Philip Streible of Blue Line Futures urged investors to begin buying cautiously, arguing that slowing U.S. economic momentum and signs inflation had peaked could eventually give the Fed room to stop raising rates. LPL Financial’s Jeffrey Roach said a 25-basis-point increase next month was more likely than a 50-point move, given risks to economic activity.

Next week, markets will assess the Federal Reserve minutes from its October meeting, when rates were left unchanged and two committee members voted for a 25-basis-point increase. Retail sales and other scheduled releases will also offer clues about consumer health and the policy outlook. A hawkish tone in the minutes could renew pressure on gold.