The drop in outbound shipments from Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk marks a significant shift in Moscow's strategy. Previously, the Kremlin managed refinery disruptions by simply diverting crude to the international market, but that buffer is failing. Faced with rising seasonal fuel demand and a string of successful attacks on infrastructure—including the Grushovaya transshipment base—authorities are now forcing barrels back into the domestic refining system.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak recently broke with the state’s typical narrative, acknowledging that national oil production has fallen this year. This admission underscores the strain on the sector, which saw output slide by as much as 400,000 barrels per day in April. To fill the supply gap, Moscow intends to boost refinery runs by up to 400,000 barrels per day throughout June. With gasoline exports suspended and jet fuel bans extended through November, producers are prioritizing internal stability over global market commitments, leaving spot deals for West Siberian crude largely sidelined.