The missile salvo on Sunday night ended a period of relative calm that had held since April, shattering the optimism that previously anchored oil prices. Despite claims from Israeli authorities that all incoming projectiles were intercepted without casualties, energy traders reacted to the physical reality of the strikes. Shortly after the initial exchange, Israel launched retaliatory air strikes against military targets in Tehran, Tabriz, and Isfahan, confirming the IRGC's report of ballistic impacts on Iranian soil.

President Trump attempted to contain the fallout, telling the Financial Times that the United States remains in control of the diplomatic process and that the incidents would not derail a potential deal. However, his public appeal for restraint, voiced on Fox News, failed to deter the subsequent Israeli military response. With physical oil markets showing increasing tightness and limited options to replace barrels lost through the Strait of Hormuz, the duration of this escalation remains the primary driver for global energy prices. Investors are now watching to see if this cycle of strikes constitutes a temporary tactical standoff or the definitive end of ceasefire negotiations.