Shaikh Khaled Ahmad Al-Sabah, managing director for international marketing at Kuwait Petroleum, noted that restoring 70% of production capacity will require six to eight weeks, with the final 30% taking an additional month. While refining operations may stabilize within three weeks, the broader logistics of restarting wells, gathering systems, and export terminals present a significant bottleneck. This outlook contrasts with the optimism voiced by President Donald Trump, who has suggested a resolution with Tehran could materialize within days.

Market analysts have largely fixated on the political reopening of the waterway, often overlooking the mechanical realities of restarting stalled infrastructure. Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk, warned that global supply chains have already shifted, meaning insurance costs and routing patterns will remain volatile regardless of political developments. The urgency of these logistics was underscored by a violent turn in the region, as a drone and missile strike on Kuwait International Airport forced a total suspension of air traffic, complicating the already fragile recovery plans.