The Kremlin is struggling to maintain the narrative that domestic supply remains stable. While local officials dismiss reports of shortages as isolated incidents, gasoline stations in Moscow and northern regions have already implemented volume caps to deter panic buying. These measures follow a wave of attacks on refineries and logistics hubs in occupied territories, including Crimea and Mariupol, which have disrupted the traditional flow of fuel.

Evidence of systemic strain surfaced when Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak publicly acknowledged declining crude production, attributing the slump to widespread unscheduled maintenance at refineries. Consequently, Moscow is diverting more barrels toward domestic needs to stabilize the market. This pivot is already visible in trade data: exports from western ports like Primorsk and Novorossiysk are projected to plummet to 1.7 million barrels per day in June, down from 2.5 million in May.