Tom Bruce, macro investment strategist at Tanglewood Total Wealth Management, views the current market as a positioning phase rather than a structural downturn. The metal’s early-year surge, once fueled by aggressive central bank diversification and momentum traders, has stalled as capital rotated into high-growth sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors. With geopolitical safe-haven demand failing to gain traction, gold has returned to its traditional sensitivity toward real interest rate expectations.

Despite the lackluster sentiment, Bruce notes that the metal has successfully absorbed significant negative pressure by holding the $4,000 support level. He argues that widespread liquidation is absent, with most investors choosing to maintain their precious metal exposure while chasing equity gains elsewhere. Looking ahead, the path to record highs likely depends on a resumption of central bank accumulation and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy. Even if the Fed maintains current interest rates rather than cutting them, Bruce suggests such a stance would provide the necessary tailwinds for gold to break out of its current range.