Since the blockade began on April 13, Iran’s ability to export crude has effectively stalled. Loading data reveals a sharp decline, with May volumes dropping to 260,000 barrels per day from 1.5 million in April. While Tehran previously maintained its export model through shadow logistics and reliance on Chinese refineries, the closure of the Strait has trapped fresh production inside the Gulf. Onshore inventories have climbed to 72 million barrels, and floating storage stranded within regional waters has surged to 24 million barrels, indicating that the country’s last liquid buffers are rapidly disappearing.

Evidence suggests that Iran has already begun scaling back production, a move that risks permanent damage to its aging oilfield infrastructure. For Tehran, the deal expected this Friday serves as an emergency valve to restore export flows before the situation forces deeper, irreversible output cuts. Washington, meanwhile, faces mounting pressure from global energy market volatility and the economic strain placed on its own regional partners. Even if the agreement holds, the transition will be slow. Insurers, charterers, and refiners will require significant time to re-evaluate the risks of handling Iranian crude. Tehran will likely be forced to return to its pre-crisis strategy of selling at deep discounts, yet for buyers like China, the price advantage remains a compelling incentive to resume trade once the maritime bottleneck clears.