The oil market's recent slide, which saw prices drop from over $100 in May to below $77 earlier this week, rested on the assumption that regional conflicts were nearing a definitive end. This optimism fueled expectations for a swift restoration of millions of barrels of daily supply, contingent on the success of a 60-day negotiation window between Washington and Tehran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the latest truce highlights a critical disconnect: the primary actors driving the recent violence are not signatories to the U.S.-Iran agreement. Israel maintains its commitment to military operations until security threats are fully neutralized, while Hezbollah continues to demand an Israeli withdrawal as a prerequisite for any permanent cessation of hostilities. This dynamic ensures that even if diplomatic channels remain open, the underlying geopolitical friction remains unresolved. Each new agreement carries an asterisk, signaling that while the Strait of Hormuz may edge toward normalization, the broader regional outlook remains a work in progress rather than a settled reality.