The rapid adoption of electric vehicles has created a persistent drag on fuel consumption, with consultancy Rystad Energy estimating a daily loss of between 200,000 and 600,000 barrels of oil demand. Lin Ye, vice president of oil markets at Rystad, suggests that once drivers transition to electric transport, they rarely return to fossil fuels unless prices drop significantly. Even as Beijing scales back historical subsidies, the market share of EVs continues to climb, rising from 38 percent in March to 42 percent in May, even as total car sales slumped by over 22 percent.

Energy Aspects projects a permanent loss of 300,000 barrels per day, while FGE NexantECA anticipates a sharp quarterly import decline reaching 3.3 million barrels daily. This contraction is exacerbated by reduced refinery run rates and a government-mandated ban on fuel exports, which has saturated the domestic market. While some analysts at Kpler expect refiners to eventually replenish depleted stockpiles to maintain a strategic buffer, the overarching trend points to a structural decline in China's reliance on crude imports.