The primary headwind remains the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, where supply disruptions continue to drain global oil inventories. Melek warns that Brent crude could climb into the $90–$110 per barrel range, effectively anchoring inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates. This environment increases the opportunity cost for gold holders, as the metal struggles against a strengthening dollar and elevated yields.

Even if shipping lanes stabilize, the depletion of global stockpiles suggests energy prices will remain elevated well into the autumn. This inflationary pressure limits the central bank’s ability to pivot, keeping the yellow metal vulnerable to further selling pressure in the coming months.

Looking toward 2027, the outlook shifts significantly. Melek points to a potential change in the FOMC’s composition by May 2026, where a more dovish tilt may prioritize economic growth over strict inflation targets. As US debt approaches $40 trillion, concerns regarding currency debasement and financial repression are expected to reignite safe-haven demand. In this scenario, gold serves as a critical hedge against Treasuries, particularly if the Federal Reserve resorts to liquidity injections to manage funding costs. Investors are advised to view the upcoming sub-$3,900 price floor as a strategic entry point for the broader bull market.