Saudi Aramco is aggressively pursuing market share in Asia, slashing official selling prices for August cargoes by $11 per barrel—a move nearly double market expectations. This marks the first time since 2020 that Saudi barrels are trading at a discount to regional benchmarks like Oman/Dubai. Meanwhile, European demand has prompted even deeper cuts, with Aramco reducing formula prices for the region by $15 per barrel. These pricing maneuvers occur against a backdrop of logistical uncertainty, as Saudi loading rates remain well below pre-conflict levels despite the partial restart of the Ras Tanura terminal.

Operational shifts are rippling across the industry as majors look to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Chevron has entered an agreement with Iraq’s Basrah Oil Co. to study alternative export pipelines, while Riyadh is weighing a major expansion of its 7 million b/d East-West pipeline. Elsewhere, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has hit its lowest level since April 1983, falling to 319.5 million barrels as of July 3. In the technology sector, CATL has secured a permit to restart its Jianxiawo lithium mine, a move analysts expect will put downward pressure on global lithium prices.