Shifting Targets in Copper and Diamonds

Anglo American has revised its 2026 copper guidance downward to a range of 700,000–760,000 tonnes, a significant cut from the previously anticipated 820,000-tonne ceiling. The adjustment follows a 14% production slide in the fourth quarter, primarily driven by lower ore grades at the Quellaveco mine in Peru. Management confirmed that the Collahuasi operation will likely see stagnant production levels through 2026 as the site navigates a phase of refractory stockpiles and lower-grade ore extraction.

The outlook for the diamond sector remains even more volatile. Production at De Beers plummeted to 3.8 million carats in the final quarter of the year, as the company initiated maintenance shutdowns at the Jwaneng and Orapa mines to align with weak global demand. Consequently, the group slashed its 2026 diamond guidance to 21–26 million carats. With the average rough price index effectively falling 25% year-on-year when accounting for stock rebalancing, the company warned that an impairment charge against De Beers' carrying value is likely at the upcoming full-year results.

Iron Ore Gains and Coal Divestments

In contrast to the struggles in copper and diamonds, Anglo American’s iron ore segment provided a rare operational boost. The company raised its 2026 iron ore production guidance to 55–59 million tonnes, citing strong performance and higher recovery rates at the Minas-Rio facility in Brazil. However, this growth was offset by a 15% decline in steelmaking coal production, which fell to 2.1 million tonnes following the divestment of the company's interest in the Jellinbah mine.

Key operational data from the latest report includes:

• Average realized diamond prices fell 7% to $142 per carat, weighed down by a higher proportion of lower-value stones in the sales mix.
• Iron ore production at the Kumba site is expected to dip in 2026 during the implementation of the Ultra-High-Dense-Media-Separation project.
• Copper output for the full year 2025 finished at 695,200 tonnes, landing within the company's original guidance despite the late-year slowdown.