According to AAA, the U.S. national average reached $3.859 per gallon on Tuesday, climbing from $3.790 just seven days prior. The price reversal follows renewed military hostilities, including U.S. strikes on Iranian radar and air defense systems, and a reinstated naval blockade. Tehran has retaliated with coordinated attacks on military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, causing commercial vessel traffic through the critical energy chokepoint to plummet by approximately 50%.

Simultaneously, the global supply chain faces mounting pressure from Eastern Europe. Ukrainian drone operations have successfully targeted Russian energy infrastructure, disabling an estimated one-third of the nation’s refining capacity. In response, Moscow has implemented a total ban on diesel exports to protect domestic supplies. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted that while the current rate of inflation has not yet reached the spikes seen in the spring, the combination of tight refined product supplies and escalating geopolitical instability suggests sustained upward pressure at the pump.