Brent crude has breached the $100 per barrel mark as Houthi strikes on Saudi tankers force vessels to seek longer, costlier detours. This logistical crisis is compounded by Ukrainian drone attacks on the Novorossiysk port, which have disrupted 1.7 million barrels of daily Kazakh exports. The cumulative impact of these blockades—choking off roughly 20 million barrels daily through Hormuz and 4 to 5 million through the Red Sea—has left the global energy market severely undersupplied.

Refined petroleum products face an even deeper crisis. Limited global refining capacity prevents crude increases from offsetting the loss of Russian diesel exports, driving refining margins to record highs. While the IEA maintains that over 1 billion barrels of government-controlled stocks remain in reserve, the depletion of commercial inventories has stripped the market of its traditional buffer. With global crude demand sliding by 5% in the second quarter, the World Bank has slashed its growth forecast to 1.3%, signaling that the energy supply chain breakdown is already translating into broader economic contraction.