While gold has struggled to sustain positions above $4,100 amid ten-year real yields hovering near 2.4%, the asset continues to find a firm floor at $4,000. Doshi suggests that the market has already priced in the bulk of the Federal Reserve’s restrictive agenda. If upcoming labor data, specifically July’s nonfarm payrolls, shows continued weakness similar to June’s disappointing 57,000 job gain, investors may rapidly recalibrate their expectations for interest rate hikes.

Looking beyond the current consolidation, Doshi maintains a base-case forecast for gold to trade between $4,750 and $5,500 over the next nine months, with a reach toward $5,000 possible by early next year. This optimism is fueled by factors beyond central bank policy. Persistent global debt, which has reached a record $353 trillion, alongside geopolitical instability, continues to drive demand. As foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries wanes, central banks are increasingly turning to gold as a strategic monetary hedge, ensuring structural support even if interest rates remain elevated for longer than anticipated.